New study uses artificial intelligence to examine shipowners’ investment choices
Vessel size and type, shipowner nationality and the shipping market cycle are associated with fuel choice in newbuildings. These are the main findings of a new study co-authored by Hercules Haralambides, Professor of Maritime Economics and Port Policy and a Partner of Komvos.
The study, entitled “Understanding shipowner fuel choice decisions in newbuilding orders: An explainable machine learning approach”, is authored by Ming Yang, Dong Zhang, Hercules Haralambides and Qingcheng Zeng. It was published in the September 2026 issue of the academic journal Transport Policy.
Explainable artificial intelligence (explainable AI – XAI) is an approach that helps identify which factors contribute to a model’s predictions. In this study, it is used to analyse fuel choices in newbuilding orders.
How were shipowners’ choices examined?
The researchers analysed data from Clarksons Research covering orders with contract dates between 1 January 2020 and 12 March 2025. They used the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) machine learning model, alongside explainable AI tools, to identify the variables carrying the greatest weight in its predictions.
The market cycle is of particular interest. According to the findings, it can create opportunities for investment in next-generation fuels, such as ammonia and methanol. The analysis also identifies differences between shipping nations, linking their choices to their competitive advantages.
Hercules Haralambides and the Komvos Shipping Initiative
Hercules Haralambides is a founding member and Partner of Komvos and serves on the Advisory Committee of its Shipping Initiative. The study relates to issues examined by the initiative, including the green transition in shipping, fleet renewal and financing for new technologies.
Fuel choice has implications for much of a vessel’s operational life. For shipowners, the investment requires assessments of costs, fuel availability and bunkering infrastructure within a changing technological and regulatory environment.
The discussion at the 4th Komvos Conference
These issues will be discussed at the 4th Annual Komvos Working Conference on 23 November 2026, with Hercules Haralambides taking part in the main shipping panel. The discussion will focus on the sector’s investment needs and opportunities to draw on Greek maritime expertise.
The panel is titled “Shipping in Transition: Financing, Innovation and Value Creation for Greece”.
Register for the 4th Annual Komvos Working Conference and join the discussion on the future of shipping.
